US
UNITED STATES CELLULAR CORP (USM)·Q3 2024 Earnings Summary
Executive Summary
- Q3 2024 was operationally stable but headline GAAP loss driven by a $136M license impairment; non-GAAP EPS excluding the impairment was $0.26, matching prior year, while Adjusted EBITDA rose to $269M (+3% YoY) and Adjusted OIBDA to $222M (+1% YoY) .
- Management raised and narrowed full-year 2024 guidance: Adjusted EBITDA to $970–$1,045M and Adjusted OIBDA to $800–$875M; service revenue range narrowed to $2.95–$3.00B and capex to $550–$600M .
- Strategic catalysts: spectrum monetization agreements ($1.0B Verizon; $1.018B AT&T, plus smaller CBRS/C-Band/700MHz deals) contingent on the T-Mobile operations sale; expected incremental towers tenancy from T-Mobile MLA supports tower revenue durability .
- Subscriber trajectory improved: postpaid handset net losses narrowed, postpaid ARPU up 2%, churn better YoY; fixed wireless customers grew 32% YoY to 140k .
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
-
What Went Well
- Raised profitability guidance (Adjusted EBITDA and Adjusted OIBDA) on disciplined cost control despite inflation and ongoing 5G deployment; CEO emphasized balancing subscriber momentum with financial discipline .
- Spectrum monetization progress: definitive agreements with multiple operators (Verizon $1.0B; AT&T $1.018B), unlocking value and optionality for retained mid-band (C-band) assets .
- Customer metrics improving: postpaid ARPU +2% YoY; both postpaid and prepaid churn improved; fixed wireless subscribers up to 140k; “us days” retention promotions cited as a driver .
- Quote: “Solid postpaid ARPU growth coupled with strong expense discipline gives us confidence to raise our 2024 Adjusted EBITDA guidance.” — Laurent C. Therivel, CEO .
-
What Went Wrong
- GAAP optics: recorded $136M license impairment (mmWave 28/37/39 GHz), yielding GAAP net loss of $(79)M and diluted EPS of $(0.92) in Q3; non-GAAP excludes impairment .
- Service revenues declined 2% YoY on a smaller average subscriber base; equipment sales down 13% YoY amid lower upgrade rates and intense competition (including cable wireless bundling) .
- Tower third‑party revenue growth slowed (1% YoY) due to industry CapEx moderation and defections (including Sprint-related), although management remains long-term bullish on densification and T‑Mobile tenancy .
Financial Results
Consolidated Summary (USD Millions unless noted)
Notes: Free Cash Flow = operating cash flow less capex and software license payments (Non-GAAP) .
Segment Breakdown
KPIs
Guidance Changes
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
Management Commentary
- “Postpaid handset results improved year-over-year due to our promotional and retention actions… Solid postpaid ARPU growth coupled with strong expense discipline gives us confidence to raise our 2024 Adjusted EBITDA guidance.” — Laurent C. Therivel, CEO .
- “We expect total cash taxes related to these recently announced spectrum transactions to be in the range of $200–$250M for UScellular and $150–$200M for TDS… in addition to estimated cash taxes on the pending T-Mobile transaction.” — Doug Chambers, CFO .
- “Future 5G network investments will predominantly be dedicated to the deployment of mid-band spectrum… to enhance 5G speed and capacity.” — Laurent C. Therivel, CEO .
- “Our postpaid ARPU also increased 2%… 54% of our postpaid handset customers on the top 2 tier plans compared to 46% a year ago.” — Laurent C. Therivel, CEO .
- “Pending transaction with T-Mobile… commitment to these 2,015 incremental towers for an initial term of 15 years is expected to significantly increase third-party tower revenues.” — Doug Chambers, CFO .
Q&A Highlights
- Spectrum transactions and taxes: CFO detailed expected cash taxes ($200–$250M USM; $150–$200M TDS) and that estimates are net of NOLs/interest carryforwards; regulatory timing may require spectrum leases post-close .
- Use of proceeds: Board will determine; options include debt paydown, fiber acceleration at TDS Telecom, potential shareholder returns; focus remains on closing transactions .
- Towers strategy: Emphasis on improving co-location rates; possible tuck-in acquisitions if valuations are sensible; groundwork for independent tower operations and ground lease buybacks .
- Convergence/MVNO: TDS Telecom advancing MVNO via NCTC with a national 5G partner; trials underway before broader launch .
- AI impact: No “super cycle” yet on devices; tangible operational efficiencies in care, training, and potential store/digital benefits .
Estimates Context
- Wall Street consensus (S&P Global) for Q3 2024 EPS and revenue was unavailable due to vendor request limits; therefore, beat/miss vs consensus cannot be determined at this time. Management raised full-year Adjusted EBITDA and Adjusted OIBDA guidance, signaling stronger profitability trajectory .
- If consensus becomes available, areas likely to be revised: 2024 profitability (Adjusted EBITDA/OIBDA up), capex lower end, service revenue narrowed range reflecting subscriber base dynamics .
Key Takeaways for Investors
- Profitability inflection: Despite headline GAAP loss from a one-time license impairment, non-GAAP metrics and raised FY guidance underscore improving underlying profitability and cost control .
- Spectrum monetization is a major catalyst: ~$2.02B of definitive spectrum sale agreements (Verizon and AT&T), contingent on T-Mobile close, with clear tax implications; potential special distributions/uses of cash to be determined by the Board .
- Towers optionality: T-Mobile MLA adds a long-term anchor tenant; densification thesis supported by constrained new spectrum pipeline, positioning towers for medium-term growth .
- Subscriber trajectory improving: ARPU mix shift to higher-tier plans, churn improvements via retention promotions; monitor competitive intensity from cable wireless bundling .
- Fixed wireless growth continues: 140k customers (+32% YoY); leverages mid-band deployment plans to enhance capacity/speeds .
- Execution risks: Regulatory approvals and transaction sequencing; cash tax obligations around spectrum and T-Mobile deals; industry CapEx moderation weighs on near-term tower revenue growth .
- Near-term trading implications: Stock likely sensitive to regulatory milestones, updates on spectrum sale closings, and any clarity on use of proceeds; medium-term thesis balances tower co growth and optionality on retained spectrum (notably C-band) .
Appendix: Additional Quantitative Comparisons
YoY vs QoQ Headline Metrics
Non-GAAP Impairment Bridge (Q3 2024)
Cash Flow and Balance Sheet Highlights (9M 2024 vs 9M 2023)
Disclaimers: Non-GAAP measures and reconciliations as provided by the company; spectrum transactions subject to regulatory approvals and contingent on the T‑Mobile transaction .